The Piper Report on Health Care

Prediction: McCain Wins 281-257

This conjecture is predicated on the latest Rasmussen swing state polls, the RealClearPolitics battleground averages, a slight, eleventh hour, unpolled pro-McCain swing in Pennsylvania based on the anti-coal flap, a dash of wishful thinking, and an assumption of 4-5 percentage points of Obama overpolling due to a combination of 1) Democrat oversampling/unrealistic turnout modeling, and 2) lying pollees, whether you want to call it Bradley effect or just a tendency to skew artificially toward the socially desirable answer of Obama (or “undecided”).

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Broadly speaking, this implies that McCain wins all 5 major eastern battleground states (Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio) and that Obama will win the three key western battleground states (New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada).

From this base case (McCain winning with an 11 point cushion), there are a couple deviations worth mentioning, given that Virginia and Pennsylvania seem to represent the most tenuous wins for McCain.

Update: Over at Hot Air, Ed Morrissey and Allahpundit have placed their chips as well.

Ed sees McCain winning with 273. This is the losing Virginia, but picking up one western state (NV) deviation described above.

Allah sees Obama winning big with 318. Take my map and strip McCain of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (ouch) and that’s the scenario.

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